Theses and Dissertations

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10217/100317

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Open Access
A bioeconomic and general equilibrium framework to address fishery management and invasive species
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Apriesnig, Jenny L., author; Goemans, Christopher, advisor; Warziniack, Travis, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Thilmany, Dawn, committee member; Johnson, Brett, committee member
Fisheries management is a complex issue that involves the management of people, fish populations and habitat. There are many facets to fishery issues including ownership, regulation, and environmental change. I address all three of these facets in the following work. I develop a general equilibrium model that incorporates fish stock and present two applications of it. I evaluate the change of a fishery under a regulated open access regime to an individual transferrable quota system. I apply the model to the Lake Erie yellow perch fishery, and I account for the different allocations of the value provided by the fish stock, and the potential changes in efficiency. I find that the change to an individual transferrable quota system results in welfare improvements but only if the individual transferrable quota system induces improved catchability and efficiency in fishery effort choices. I also develop an integrated bioeconomic model with the general equilibrium framework to evaluate the joint responses of a regional economy and lake food web to an environmental shock. The model is unique in that there are feedbacks between the economy and food web. The bioeconomic model is used to evaluate a potential Lake Erie Asian carp invasion. There are two primary results from the analysis; the Asian carp invasion leads to welfare improvements, and when invasion impacts are estimated with only the ecological food web model, without the consideration of changes in human choice, the impacts to some fish populations are overestimated while others are underestimated. In both applications, I show that using a general equilibrium framework captures welfare impacts that would be missed by a partial equilibrium analysis.
Open Access
A computable general equilibrium analysis of aggregates materials recycling and waste disposal policy alternatives
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2009) Miller, Michael D., author; Davies, Stephen, advisor; Cutler, Harvey, advisor
The work presented in this dissertation is intended to provide community leaders insights into possible aggregates material disposal and recycling policy alternatives. In this work four main policy alternatives are examined-a tax on landfill deposits, a subsidy for the purchase of recycled aggregates materials, a requirement that all industries in the community increase their consumption of recycled aggregates, and a requirement that the top five producers of aggregates waste supply greater amounts of materials to recycling facilities. The scenarios reported include "base case" situations and sensitivity analysis. For the sensitivity analysis, there are changes in the levels of taxation, subsidy, required use of the recycled materials, and required supply waste to be recycled. Additionally, the percentage of materials being sent to landfill and the percentage of materials being recycled is adjusted in order to measure the impacts of the tax and subsidy on communities with differing levels of recycling already in place. Two other policy alternatives are also analyzed and briefly discussed: (1) The model is allowed to respond to changes in the prices of intermediate goods; and (2) Tax and subsidy rates are changed simultaneously. This dissertation finds that, as a result of the limited economic impact of the aggregates materials industry (compared to the local economy in total), landfill deposit taxes and materials purchase subsidies have little impact on the community's economic well being. However, due to the rather "painless" nature of these policies, implementation of these policies do not preclude their use in laying the groundwork for other, more impactful solid waste material disposal approaches. The implementation of the two regulatory policy alternatives has significant positive impacts throughout the economy, but carries with them greater unknown liabilities that are beyond the scope of this dissertation.
Open Access
A cost-benefit analysis of preventive management for zebra and quagga mussels in the Colorado-Big Thompson System
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Thomas, Catherine M., author; Bond, Craig A., advisor; Goemans, Christopher G., advisor; Champ, Patricia A., committee member; Waskom, Reagan M., committee member
The introduction of zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga mussels (D. bugensis) to the western U.S. has water managers considering strategies to prevent or slow their spread. In Colorado, the Department of Wildlife (CDOW) has implemented a statewide mandatory boat inspection program. This study builds a bioeconomic model to simulate a mussel invasion and associated control costs for a connected Colorado water system, and compares the costs of the CDOW boat inspection program to the expected reduction in control costs to infrastructure. Results suggest that preventative management is effective at reducing the probability that mussels invade, but the costs may exceed the benefits of reduced control costs to infrastructure. The risk of invasion, the spatial layout of a system, the type of infrastructure, and the level of control costs associated with a system are key variables in determining net benefits of preventative management.
Open Access
A DuPont model approach to financial management: a case study of veterinary practices
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Dodge, Lynn E., author; Koontz, Stephen R., advisor; Hadrich, Joleen C., committee member; Frasier, W. Marshall, committee member; Garry, Franklyn B., committee member
As the veterinary industry continues to face personal debt and practice management challenges, financial analysis of veterinary practices is becoming increasingly important. Historically, veterinary practices have been managed for profitability, which when measured alone ignores the role investment and borrowing play in earning financial returns. A DuPont Model is employed to measure profitability, asset turnover, and leverage separately and then collectively through the evaluation of return on equity (ROE). Veterinary practices are divided into performance groups based on ROE and the management behavior of each performance group is evaluated and characterized. Returns for higher performing practices flow back into the business to increase productive capacity while returns for lower performing practices flow out of the business through debt repayment and owner compensation. Leverage is important where highest performers used debt to increase productive capacity and thus increase returns and the lowest performers used debt as a tool to keep their poor performing businesses in practice. This work provides a model and reference point for veterinary practice managers to measure their own financial performance.
Open Access
A hedonic analysis of the closure of the equine slaughter houses on horse prices
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2013) Maass, Amelia, author; Pritchett, James, advisor; Costanigro, Marco, committee member; Pendell, Dustin, committee member; Denniston, David, committee member
Unwanted horses are a significant problem for policymakers and equine stakeholders. Alternatives for resolving the problem are unclear, in no small part because it is difficult to disentangle the relative importance of several causes. This study considers the impact of several factors on the problem by quantifying their influence on horse auction prices. Analysis segments horses into investment and recreational markets, high value and low value equine segments and by gender. Results suggest the slaughter ban impacts auction prices of some segments significantly, but other impacts are negligible.
Open Access
A study of factors that influence a horse owner's veterinary treatment purchasing decisions
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2018) Fahey, Shannon T., author; Hadrich, Joleen, advisor; Koontz, Stephen, committee member; Frasier, Marshall, committee member; Roman-Muniz, Noa, committee member
There has been very little academic research done to assess and understand how horse owners make treatment decisions for their sick or injured horses. An owner's decision to treat or euthanize their sick or injured horse is not only a financial one, but an emotional one as well. This decision can also impact the veterinarian's overall welfare. The responsibility of performing euthanasia on animals has been linked to decreased job satisfaction, health problems, and increased rates of suicide among the veterinary population. There are also potential financial implications when a veterinarian has to euthanize a patient. When a veterinarian euthanizes a patient, he or she can miss out on thousands of dollars in potential future revenues from the care of that patient. For these reasons, it is imperative that veterinarians understand what influences a horse owner's decision to treat or euthanize their sick or injured horse. This study used a choice experiment and demographics survey to gather data from Colorado horse owners that was analyzed to better understand the decision-making behavior of horse owners. The main effects fractional factorial choice experiment was designed using SAS 9. In each choice set, the respondents ranked the most preferred and least preferred of three choice alternatives (Treatment A, Treatment B, and Euthanasia) they could hypothetically face if their horse was suffering from obstruction colic. The attributes for Treatment A and Treatment B were price, recovery period length, and success rate. These three attributes varied between choice alternatives and across choice sets. The only attribute for euthanasia was price, which remained constant across all choice sets. The choice experiment was included with a demographics survey and was distributed to Colorado horse owners via an anonymous Qualtrics link. The demographic questions provided further insight information about the horse owners on an individual level. The data was analyzed using a rank-ordered logit model in STATA. The first of two regressions in this study involved only the treatment attributes and a euthanasia dummy variable, and the other including treatment attributes and demographic interactions. The initial regression found that an increase in price and recovery period decreased the probability that an alternative was ranked as a more-preferred option. An increase in success rate had the opposite effect. When the demographic interactions were included in the analysis, the impact of recovery period on the ranking of an alternative was no longer statistically significant. Only certain demographic interactions were statistically significant as well. Most notably, an increase in income only had a statistically significant effect on how changes in success rate affected the ranking of an alternative. The coefficients from the initial regression were used to calculate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) values for recovery period length, success rate, and avoiding euthanasia. The WTP values suggest that horse owners most value the success rate of a treatment and are willing to pay up to $2,610 for treatment in order to avoid euthanizing their sick or injured horse. This study can serve as a baseline for future research into the veterinary spending behavior of horse, livestock, and pet owners. The results from this study can also be utilized by veterinarians to better understand their clients. With this information, veterinary clinics can make decisions that are better for their patients, their clients, and themselves.
Open Access
Accounting for spatial substitution patterns and bioeconomic feedback loops: an economic approach to managing inland recreational fisheries
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Deisenroth, Daniel B., author; Bond, Craig A., advisor; Loomis, John B., advisor; Goemans, Chris, committee member; Davies, Stephen, committee member; Myrick, Chris, committee member
This dissertation consists of three papers which address separate but related issues in recreational fisheries management. Paper one estimates the economic contribution of the private, recreation-based aquaculture industry in the Western United States. Paper two presents a method for combining models of site selection with input-output models in order to better estimate the true economic impacts of augmentation or deterioration of recreational sites. Finally, paper three presents a dynamic, bioeconomic model of a recreational fishery and uses that model to simulate what would happen over time to anglers and fish populations (as well as value to anglers) if fish stocking were to be halted at a single recreational fishery. All three papers are policy relevant today given the increased pressure from (and litigation filed by) environmental groups to reduce fish stocking due to conflicts with native and endangered species. Paper one explores the economic contribution of the private, recreation-based aquaculture industry in the Western United States. New sectors are constructed in IMPLAN input-output software using data gathered between 2007 and 2010 from producers and their direct customers (stocked fisheries). Information from a third survey of anglers in Colorado and California is integrated to predict the short-term shocks that would occur to various industries if anglers at privately stocked fisheries were to discontinue fishing (simulating a hypothetical collapse of the industry). Accounting for both the backward and forward linkages of the private, recreation-based aquaculture industry's production, model results indicate that for every dollar of fish stocking, $36 dollars of recreational angler-related expenditures are supported, and that the total economic contribution of this industry in the Western United States is roughly $2 billion annually. This is the first study addressing the forward linkages and total economic contribution of this industry in the Western United States. Paper two addresses a similar issue as paper one, but goes further to account for substitution patterns among anglers. Using information from a survey of anglers in 2009, a repeated nested logit (RNL) model of angler spatial substitution behavior is estimated. Then, the RNL is used to predict changes in angler days associated with changes in fishery attributes. By linking the RNL and input-output model, better insight is gained into the economic losses associated with augmentation or deterioration of stocked fishing sites. Results indicate that if a single site is closed within the region of analysis, of the 29,500 anglers that will no longer fish at that site, only 6,500 anglers will leave the region of analysis (the rest substituting to other in-region sites). Standard impact analysis would therefore overestimate the economic impacts of such a policy by 450%. Results are similar when catch rates are reduced by 50% at one site, with 14,000 anglers leaving that site but only 3,000 leaving the region. The third and final paper of this dissertation presents a means by which managers may manage inland recreational fisheries from a dynamic bioeconomic perspective. A discrete-time, discrete-space, infinite time horizon numerical model of a fishery is built in GAMS software to reflect responses of anglers to the fishery and responses of the fishery to anglers over time. A data-driven random utility model is used to inform angler response and value functions in this dynamic bioeconomic model. Results from one region in California indicate that a) current fish stocking levels may be inefficiently high, and b) elimination of fish stocking programs at popular lakes may not lead to a crash in fishery populations, since anglers will simply substitute to other nearby fisheries (rather than "fish-out" the lake). Managers who can predict the intertemporal effects of fishery management alternatives in this way will be able to better meet the demands of recreational anglers.
Open Access
Accounting for well capacity in the economic decision making of groundwater users
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Collie, Samuel, author; Suter, Jordan, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Schneekloth, Joel, committee member
Water conflicts unfolding around the world present the need for accurate economic models of groundwater use which couple traditional producer theory with hydrological science. We present a static optimization problem of individual producer rents, given groundwater as a variable input to production. In a break with previous literature, the model allows for the possibility of binding constraints on well capacity, which occur due to the finite lateral speed at which water moves underground. The theoretical model predicts that binding well yield constraints imply producers extract as much water as possible to maximize profit. Therefore, if producers are constrained, regions with more available water should consume more of it. We test this hypothesis empirically by modelling the effect of well yields on crop cover and water usage data. Our empirical results find that areas with higher than average well capacities tend to plant a more water intensive mix of crops, and use more groundwater. This straightforward result comes in contrast to previous economic models of groundwater use, which have assumed an interior solution to the irrigators’ profit maximization problem. Well capacity also affects how farmers respond to seasonal weather variation. Farms with high well capacity react sharply to seasonal precipitation, whereas low capacity farms show less adjustment. This research provides important inroads to understanding what drives irrigators’ behavior on the High Plains; a crucial step towards conserving this resource.
Open Access
Agricultural manufacturing location decisions in Colorado: implications for rural economic development policy
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2018) Sheridan, Claire, author; Jablonski, Becca, advisor; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Bonanno, Alessandro, committee member; Cabot, Perry, committee member
Many rural areas face unique challenges that put them at a competitive disadvantage relative to urban areas. State and Federal policies in the U.S. promote opportunities for value-added agriculture (manufacturing) as a means to create and retain wealth in rural places. In order to inform policies that might attract agricultural manufacturing firms to rural locations, this research explores agricultural firm location decisions using a case study of Colorado. First, this research creates a unique dataset of agricultural manufacturing firms in the State of Colorado and uses these data to assess if the traditional factors associated with neoclassical firm location theory (such as wages, tax rates and population) are correlated with agricultural manufacturing firm locations. Second, we conduct in-depth interviews with selected food manufacturing firms located in Colorado's heterogonous Western Slope. Results suggest a behavioral framework (where assets other than profit increase welfare) may better explain how agricultural manufacturing firms choose to locate in rural places. We recommend bottom-up policies that allow communities to promote entrepreneurship and take advantage of location-based comparative advantages as a means to attract agricultural manufacturing firms to rural Colorado.
Open Access
An alternative water resource project for the state of Colorado: the Million - Green River Basin Water project: a comparative economics study and cost-benefit analysis of the Colorado River and Green River basins
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Million, Aaron P., author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Loomis, John, committee member; Frasier, Marshall, committee member; Grigg, Neil, committee member
Water supplies are a limiting factor in the Western United States. Policy, social welfare, and economic interests all reflect the demands placed on this scarce resource. Projects to develop water are complex and reflect both historical and current institutional, environmental, and financial constraints. This study proposes a project from the Green River Basin for use in the State of Colorado. Water managers called this study the first new idea in water resources in 50 years. The cost-benefit analysis identifies limits, constraints and opportunities from the Green River Basin compared to the Colorado River basin. Economic welfare issues reflect water's expanding use and legal constraints. Not a public good exclusively and not a private right exclusively, the procurement of water, water rights, and development history is influenced by water's legal standing, public policy, and economic benefits. In the western United States, the Colorado River Compact influences the division and equitable use of waters in the Colorado River Basin System. Significant infrastructure is part of the landscape influenced by the Compact and the need to allocate water in a constrained system. Recent public project proposals failed to identify a potential water supply from the Green River. Environmental benefits, comparative costs, and financial opportunities may allow a new paradigm in the development of a major water project by the private sector. The historic return to private development of water projects reflects current policy changes and markets. The private sector may have significant advantages over public development and meet or exceed public welfare goals related to conservation, environmental benefits, protection of irrigated farmland, and supply procurement.
Open Access
An analysis of housing values and national flood insurance reform under the Biggert-Waters Act of 2012
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Villar, Daniel Clark, author; Goemans, Christopher, advisor; Suter, Jordan, committee member; Zahran, Sammy, committee member
Previous research has shown that both flood risk and insurance premiums are capitalized in housing values. This paper examines the effect of National Flood Insurance Program reform implemented by the Biggert Waters Act of 2012 and the Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 on housing values over a three-and-a-half year time period. It is hypothesized that the effects of increasing flood insurance rates through the elimination of established subsidies was capitalized in home values resulting in a loss of value in areas where subsidies are maintained. The paper presents a hedonic price difference-in-difference OLS model which is then tested for flexibility to the policy period and robustness to the treatment group. The evidence indicates that (1) housing values trend differently for areas with subsidies than areas without and (2) that this effect is correlated with flood insurance reform periods and robust to the definition of the treatment group. I conclude that the Biggert-Waters Act had a negative impact on median home values for areas with subsidized policies.
Open Access
An analysis of the dairy industry: regional impacts and rational price formation
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Swanepoel, Graham, author; Hadrich, Joleen, advisor; Koontz, Stephen R., committee member; McConnel, Craig, committee member
In the first chapter an Input-Output model was used to estimate the economic contribution of the combined dairy industry to the local Colorado economy. Due to the substantial increase in the dairy industry over the last decade, there was need to quantify the economic role of dairy industry, from dairy producers to dairy processers, and measure the linkages with allied industries in terms of output, value added, and employment contributions. It was estimated that the total economic contribution of the dairy industry exceeded $3 billion in 2012, and accounted for roughly 4,333 jobs. In the chapter two Class III milk futures contracts are examined for the presence of rational price formation due to increasing uncertainty surrounding revenue streams for dairy producers. Presence of rational price formation suggests an efficient market, allowing for increased confidence in the futures market. A system of 12 seemingly unrelated regressions is used to investigate rational price formation. Futures contracts are found to be acting in an allocative capacity from 11 months to 3 months prior to expiration month. In the last 2 months, the forward pricing role is dominant taking into account the supply and demand dynamics in the market. It is found that Class III milk futures play both roles well, indicating that they are efficient in utilizing all information available through the last 12 months of trading.
Open Access
An analysis of the impact of land tenure on groundwater use and attitudes concerning groundwater conservation in Colorado's Republican River Basin
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Shepler, Ryan, author; Suter, Jordan, advisor; Goemans, Chris, committee member; Schneekloth, Joel, committee member
Groundwater pumping from an aquifer that exceeds the recharge rate results in decreases in future groundwater availability and well capacity. Economic research on groundwater pumping has generally assumed that groundwater is being managed myopically (Koundouri, 2004). Further research with the Ogallala aquifer has found contradictory results, with research from Pfieffer and Lin (2013) suggesting that there is dynamic decision making, while other empirical analysis has lead researchers to conclude there is no difference between myopic decision making and an otherwise optimal groundwater extraction strategy (Savage, 2011). Our research within the Republican River Basin of Colorado contributes to the literature by analyzing the impacts of land tenure on the extent to which tenants and owners make dynamically informed decisions. We find no evidence of heterogeneity in groundwater use as a result of land tenure, suggesting that groundwater decisions are being made myopically. Our research also uses data from a recently conducted survey within the region to examine the impact that tenure has in determining concern regarding groundwater availability, and support for policies within the region that would seek to conserve groundwater. Estimating multiple probit regressions, we find that tenant operators are less likely to be concerned about the long-term availability of groundwater, and that they are less likely to support groundwater management districts working to develop strategies that would seek to promote groundwater conservation. We do not find that tenure has an impact on support for specific policy mechanisms, but rather that well capacity is pivotal in driving support for these specific policies.
Open Access
An econometric model of determinants of visitor use on western national forests
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Kasberg, Kevin, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Koontz, Stephen, committee member; Newman, Peter, committee member
The accuracy of visitor use data from the National Visitor Use Monitoring Program (NVUM) allows for testing the relationship between public land visitation and individual site characteristics and facilities. In an attempt to predict visitation on both BLM and USFS lands, forty National Forests in the Western US were chosen for their spatial and landscape resemblance to BLM lands. Using multiple regressions, facility and landscape characteristics have a statistically significant relationship with the four recreation types in NVUM data: Day use developed sites (DUDS), Overnight use developed sites (OUDS), General Forest Area (GFA), and Wilderness. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of prediction calculated using ten out of sample National Forests for Wilderness was lowest at 69%, with OUDS, DUDS and GFA higher at 93%, 103% and 115% respectively. As an alternative method to estimate the predictive power, stepwise procedures were applied to all forty observations. These resulting models were used to construct a spreadsheet calculator that provides an annual visitation prediction for a USFS or BLM land.
Open Access
An economic assessment of white crappie (Pomoxis annularis) culture methods
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Larsen, Erik C., author; Bond, Craig, advisor; Goemans, Christopher, committee member; Myrick, Christopher, committee member
Due to uncertain inputs into production, the development of a successful aquaculture operation requires meticulous business and contingency planning efforts. Given the degree of complexity involved in creating these plans, however, the culturist must often consider and carefully analyze an array of options presented to them. In an effort to assist the culturist with these complicated decisions, the goal of this work is to design a decision support tool, in which the user may explore business planning options and contingency planning scenarios. This decision support tool uses the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) as an analytical cornerstone in order to estimate the expected output of a white crappie (Pomoxis annularis) culture system (in terms of both number of fish for stocking and dollars of total net revenues). To address stochasticity in production, Monte Carlo simulation tools have been incorporated into the model in an effort to facilitate meaningful economic analyses of production planning on the basis of expected habitat quality.
Open Access
An estimated system of demand for specialty potato varieties: marketing implications from a multi-city comparison
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Huber, Christopher C., author; Bond, Jennifer, advisor; Costanigro, Marco, committee member; Hoffman, Doug, committee member
The decline in annual fresh potato consumption in the U.S. has been especially difficult for the Colorado potato industry since their product is primarily targeted for the fresh market. A more recent trend, which may provide opportunity for the Colorado potato industry, is reported growth in consumer interest in fresh specialty potatoes. Through an analysis of market level data, the objective of this research project is to inform the marketing efforts of the Colorado Potato Administrative Committee and individual potato growers in Colorado on the emerging specialty potato market opportunities that may exist. Deaton and Muellbauer's (1980) linear approximate almost ideal demand system is used to recover and compare price and expenditure elasticities for eight potato varieties across five U.S. cities. Results from this project indicate that significant differences exist in consumer behavior for specialty potato varieties relative to the well-established Russet potato. Specifically, the modeling techniques used in this paper find that consumers are often more sensitive to changes in the price of specialty potatoes relative to the well-established Russet potato.
Open Access
An investigation into the starting salaries of male and female veterinarians
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Weiss, Jane Frances, author; Frasier, Marshall, advisor; Hadrich, Joleen, advisor; Koontz, Stephen, committee member; Jensen, Wayne, committee member
Historically, the United States veterinary industry has been a male-dominated field, but in recent years women have surpassed men in veterinary school enrollment and now make up 60% of practicing veterinarians. There is evidence of a persistent gap between the starting salaries of male and female veterinary school graduates. This research investigates the effect of factors previously used to explain this gap and explores other factors that could further explain the unexplained residual gap heretofore attributed to wage discrimination. Most studies of wage gap attribute any unexplained residual from their statistical models as being the result of gender discrimination. However, most have not quantified or analyzed the effect of inherent differences between males and females, which could explain more of the unexplained portion instead of simple attribution toward systematic gender bias. Analysis of survey data of graduating veterinary medicine students reveals that the wage differential between the aggregate means of men and women is largely explained by employment self-selection, driven by what sectors the male and female graduates are choosing as their beginning employment within the veterinary field. However, much is still left unexplained. This study quantifies fundamental differences in the effect of male and female attributes through the regression techniques including ordinary lease squares and matching methods to analyze factors that explain the wage gap. The three-step methodology starts from an examination of the wage gap at the mean through the least squares models and then refines the resolution of analysis to identify that the wage gap is actually larger than originally estimated when comparing individuals with the same demographic factors through nearest neighbor matching. From this analysis, the fundamental differences between starting male and female veterinarians provide insight as to why the wage gap exists.
Open Access
Analysis of Chinese and U.S. soy markets and trade dynamics
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Zhu, Yuefeng, author; Thilmany, Dawn D., advisor; Pendell, Dustin L., committee member; Pena, Anita Alves, committee member
The stable soybean (and soy product) trade relationship between the U.S. and China is threatened by various market factors. This thesis analyzes the drivers behind soybean trade between the U.S. and China. The economic models are constructed and estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURs) to discover what factors may be influencing U.S. domestic soybean (and soy product) demand, as well as factors influencing U.S. export volumes and China import volumes. Discussion of policy implications will be provided based on the estimation results.
Open Access
Analysis of the impact on the stock market of chemical disasters: petrochemical companies in industrial complex in Korea
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Eun, Sungtae, author; Loomis, John B., advisor; Kroll, Stephan, committee member; Iverson, Terrence, committee member
The chemical industries in Korea have the industrial structure of a developing country focused more on basic chemical compounds and wider use of products rather than fine chemical goods. The chemical industry is composed of 10% knowledge (pharmaceuticals), 30% specialty (consumer products, agricultural chemicals, coatings, and fine chemicals), and 60% basic (polymers, synthetic rubber and fibers, basic inorganic chemicals, and basic organic chemicals). This study examined 18 different petrochemical, food chemical and steel companies with 26 chemical disasters. Capelle-Blancard, Laguna (2010) showed the problems related to providing robust empirical evidences on the stock market reaction to chemical disasters. This analysis which was based on using abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) concluded that chemical disasters like explosions, plant fires, and chemical leaks caused both negative and positive stock market reaction. Most of the companies that I tried to test the hypotheses showed negative ARs and CARs after the event as I expected. I thought that the effects on stock market reactions were different according to the type, extent, and number of casualties in the accident. When I performed the event study with the topic, I got the results from 15 cases of the relationships between the ARs or CARs and the extent, type, and the number of casualties. However, all of the cases did not show the same results. The 16 cases revealed that the degree of severity of the chemical accidents was not really related to the market reaction. The reason why the unmatched results arose was because of the exposure of the event information. Hamilton (1995) mentioned that the market is influenced by the leak of information. I have concluded that the relationship between the ARs/CARs and the extent, type, and the number of casualties are not seriously related to each other. There is a limitation to this conclusion because of the leak of information to the market (Hamilton, 1995). Korajczyk, Lucas, and McDonald (1990) mentioned the asymmetry should be of greatest concern to potential buyers of common stock. That means there should be a factor(s) affect(s) the market and its behavior. The country like Korea is likely to conceal or control the information of the chemical disasters. According to the Center for Occupational Environmental Health (COEH) in Korea, there was a briefing session in June 2013 about the current state of concealment of fires, explosions and chemical spills in industrial complexes at the congress. The statistical data investigation in the accident has a couple of problems. First, there is no report of the accident to local authority if the petrochemical plant doesn't have death casualties. Second, there are differences in the accident statistics between the central and the local government. Lastly, the classification of industrial accidents is not established precisely.
Open Access
Analyzing the impact of Hurricane Matthew on the housing market in Savannah Georgia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Wrigley, Adam, author; Hill, Alexandra, advisor; Suter, Jordan, advisor; Iverson, Terry, committee member
This study seeks to shed light on the relationship between destructive hurricanes and public belief in the increasing risk to homeownership from these storms as climate change progresses. We investigate the impact of Hurricane Matthew on transaction prices of properties in the city of Savannah, Georgia because it is an example of a natural disaster which was unique in severity for its era but is characteristic of storms which will become more common with warmer oceans and higher sea levels (IPPC 2021). Hurricane Matthew made landfall in 2016. It was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since 2007 and occurred late in the season relative to previous hurricanes in the area. We use a hedonic modeling approach to shed light on the perceived risk and vulnerability of owning low elevation real estate by comparing property prices before and after the hurricane. We do this to speculate on whether the impact of a single storm can noticeably change the behavior of market participants in a location. Within our hedonic modeling framework, we employ several econometric specifications including a difference-in-difference regression, an event study model, and a repeated sales model. Our findings indicate that homebuyers were willing to pay a premium for more protected homes, i.e. higher elevation homes, compared with less protected homes, i.e. lower elevation homes, in the two years after the storm. This changing preference for relatively safer homes within a county, at the expense of the amenities available to the low elevation homes such as ocean views, is consistent with increased belief in the immediate dangers of climate change following a destructive event.