Forecasting summer/fall El Niño-southern oscillation events at 6-11 month lead times
| dc.contributor.author | Seseske, Stacey A., author | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-02-20T18:18:14Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-02-20T18:18:14Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2004-06 | |
| dc.description | June 2004. | |
| dc.description | Principal investigator: William M. Gray. | |
| dc.description.abstract | Accurately predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is an important yet challenging task, especially at the extended range of 6-11 months. This research offers a new methodology for forecasting extended range ENSO events, utilizing global data and a statistical model. Most ENSO forecasts utilize data local to the Pacific Ocean basin. This research uses an all-subsets technique to select from an inclusive pool of global predictors that are able to capture useful ENSO precursor signals beyond the Pacific basin. A multiple linear regression using the best five predictors produced a December 1 forecast for the June-July-August (6-8 month forecast) and the September-October-November (9-11 month forecast) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly SSTA) in the Niño 3-4 region (5°N-5°S, 120-170°W). The performance of each forecast was then compared to the analogous 1 December ENSO-CLIPER (Knaff and Landsea 1911) forecast which is held as a benchmark for specifying ENSO forecast skill. Results for the 6-8 month forecast (1 December to JJA) show that the scheme presented in this research (herein referred to as SG) explains more variance than that of the ENSO-CLIPER scheme. The SG scheme accounts for 58 percent of the variance for the period 1952-2002, while the ENSO-CLIPER model explains only 14 percent for the same period. The 9-11 month forecast (1 December to SON) shows that SG only improves slightly upon ENSO-CIOPER. The SG forecast explained 3;6 percent of the variance for the 1950-2002 period, while ENSO-CLIPER explained 25 percent. However, by combining the two schemes (SG + ENSO-CLIPER) it is possible to explain over 50 percent of the variance in the SON SSTA timeseries 9-11 months in advance. | |
| dc.format.medium | born digital | |
| dc.format.medium | reports | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10217/236293 | |
| dc.language | English | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Colorado State University. Libraries | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Atmospheric Science Papers (Blue Books) | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Atmospheric science paper, no. 749 | |
| dc.rights | Copyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright. | |
| dc.subject.lcsh | Climatic changes -- Forecasting | |
| dc.subject.lcsh | El Niño Current | |
| dc.subject.lcsh | Southern oscillation | |
| dc.title | Forecasting summer/fall El Niño-southern oscillation events at 6-11 month lead times | |
| dc.type | Text | |
| dc.type | Image | |
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