Heatwaves been faking me out: evaluating 2-M temperature forecast errors when AI weather prediction models can't catch the heat

Abstract

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is also increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle with extreme heat for medium-range and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence-based weather prediction (AIWP) models are progressing rapidly. However, it is largely unknown how well AIWP models forecast extremes, especially for medium-range and S2S timescales. This study investigates 2-m temperature forecasts for 60 heat waves across the four boreal seasons and over four CONUS regions at lead times up to 20 days, using two AIWP models (Google GraphCast and Pangu-Weather) and one traditional NWP model (NOAA United Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System (UFS GEFS)). First, case study analyses show that both AIWP models and the UFS GEFS exhibit consistent cold biases on regional scales in the 5–10 days of lead time before heat wave onset. GraphCast is the more skillful AIWP model, outperforming UFS GEFS and Pangu-Weather in most locations. Next, the two AIWP models are isolated and analyzed across all heat waves and seasons, with events split between models' testing (2018–2023) and training (1979–2017) periods. There are cold biases before and during the heat waves in both models and all seasons, except Pangu-Weather in winter, which exhibits a mean warm bias before heat wave onset. Overall, results offer encouragement that AIWP models may be useful for medium-range and S2S prediction of extreme heat.